To Beat The Warriors You Gotta Draft Like The Warriors Good Luck

SA2008-1115Kawhi Leonard17.027.4 DET1994-973Grant Hill18.126.3 Despite those odds, plenty of teams manage to look smart in the draft every year. The Warriors themselves had a terrific series of drafts between 2009 and 2012, when they picked up Green, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson in rapid succession. That group generated about 25 more points of VORP than they should have based on where they were picked, giving Golden State one of the shrewdest four-year stretches of drafts in the lottery era: DET1985-8827Dennis Rodman12.828.6 NO2002-054Chris Paul24.728.4 CLE1985-887Kevin Johnson12.934.7 Early in the draft, the curve is steep. The average No. 2 pick is worth only about 80 percent as many VORP in his first five seasons as the average No. 1, and players only get less valuable from there. Each additional pick produces a lot less than the slot before, emphasizing how costly every random tumble in the lottery can be.But let’s say our theoretical team gets its hands on a collection of valuable draft picks. What are the odds that it will take the right player at each slot? According to my research, there’s about a 70 percent chance that a team won’t take the best player available with any given pick at or near the top of the draft. Of course, the haul is still usually decent even if a team doesn’t nail its pick perfectly — but at the same time, “decent” doesn’t really help build a Warriors-killer.VIDEO: Why the No. 1 pick is such a valuable crapshoot Only at the most extreme edge of young talent, where the sample of historical examples is limited, do we see the potential upside usually associated with a group of highly drafted prospects playing together. (Think of the 2009-10 Oklahoma City Thunder, one of the greatest collections of pure talent ever assembled, coalescing into an NBA finalist within a few seasons.) Short of that, it’s tough to improve more than normal reversion to the mean would predict by simply stocking up on a bunch of kids with raw draft pedigree. Future stardom is unpredictable (again, see teams’ lack of consistency in getting better-than-average return on picks), and young players in particular tend to amplify one another’s flaws when playing together.But if our hypothetical Warriors-killer does manage to survive the lottery, make the right picks in the draft, get those prospects on the court together and then max out their potential, the model predicts the upper bound for its eventual peak Elo would be 1762. That’s roughly where the Warriors will be starting from next season (after reverting their final 2016-17 rating to the mean), and it’s also roughly the same Elo carried at season’s end by the 2015-16 Cleveland Cavaliers — not coincidentally, the last team to unseat the Warriors in the playoffs.A lot has to go right to get to that point, and most teams who travel down that path will fall short. But the Warriors will also feel the tug of parity soon — however gently — and at the same time, some team will eventually clear all the hurdles and build the challenger to Golden State’s throne. There’s a decent chance that journey starts in Brooklyn tonight, at the draft. * Value Over Replacement Player. Based on draftees’ first five NBA seasons, versus the average expected VORP for the slot where each player was picked. Players who were traded at the draft are assigned to the team that acquired them.Source: Basketball-Reference.com LAL1993-9610Eddie Jones14.027.8 In the age of superteams and super-duper teams,1Whether today’s stars want to admit such things exist or not. the Golden State Warriors built the ultimate doomsday machine when they added Kevin Durant in free agency last summer. Winning a championship this year seemed — and ultimately was — inevitable. But before KD put pen to paper, Golden State had captured one title and set the all-time wins record. And it was done with a roster largely built through the draft. The Warriors were the poster children for how to build a team through savvy scouting and player development, not reckless spending.Likewise, we can make a pretty good guess that the team that one day unseats Golden State will not be a creaky monument to Russian oligarchy, but rather more organic. So on draft day, let’s imagine how a team might build through the draft, stockpiling young talent and maxing out their collective potential. Could such a team rise to the Warriors’ level? Maybe. But everything would have to go right for our team, from lucking out in the lottery to nailing its picks and then developing them into stars. In other words, to beat the Warriors, you have to do what the Warriors did.First things first: It isn’t easy to jam-pack a roster with a bunch of promising young players. Even an aggressive tanking effort like Sam Hinkie’s “Process” in Philadelphia can’t guarantee that the lottery balls will fall the way they’re expected to. Indeed, the Sixers under Hinkie suffered below-average lottery luck. Meanwhile, other teams can always swoop in and snag the top pick (think the Cavaliers). Although Philly still managed to draft some high picks over the years — including, finally, a No. 1 choice in Ben Simmons last year — it didn’t get as much out of the draft as its fans might have expected when the Process began.And because the value of a pick diminishes so rapidly from No. 1 down, any unfavorable bounce in the lottery could derail our imaginary rebuild before it begins. Here’s the expected value for each pick slot — as measured by players’ Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) over the course of their first five NBA seasons — since the lottery era began in 1985: BEST PICK TOR1997-009Tracy McGrady13.526.1 And this methodology probably underrates the drafting job done by former Warriors general manager Larry Riley — and his replacement, Bob Myers, who made the team’s best pick when he drafted Draymond Green 35th overall in 2012 — since it looks at only the first five seasons of a player’s career. Curry, for instance, didn’t reach his full game-breaking potential until his sixth season in the league.But just as studies have found in other sports (most notably the NFL), there isn’t much consistent skill to making better-than-average picks in the NBA draft. The correlation between a team’s per-pick return on investment2As measured by VORP over expectation for each draft slot. in one three-year period and the next is only 0.014 — a practically nonexistent relationship.3I used three years because that’s about half the reasonable lifespan of an NBA GM gig. Even the Warriors picked big-man bust Ekpe Udoh sixth overall in between the first rounds in which they snapped up Curry and Thompson.With all these factors stacked against teams built around touted draft picks, it’s no wonder they have a spotty record of converting potential to results. Using the same method of evaluating talent bases as my colleague Kyle Wagner and I created for this story about the Minnesota Timberwolves, I measured how many highly drafted young players each team4Going back to the start of the NBA’s modern expansion wave in 1988-89. had on its roster at the same time. I then built a model using that data to predict how a team might fare over the next five seasons based on its young talent. For most teams in recent history, it’s tough to see much of a relationship between young talent and how much the team’s Elo rating5Essentially, FiveThirtyEight’s way of measuring how well a team is playing. improved, above and beyond what we’d simply expect from ordinary reversion to the mean.To show this, let’s give our team a starting Elo of 1400, basically where the Warriors themselves were after the 2011-12 season. Here’s what that model would predict its peak Elo to be over the next five seasons, depending on how much young talent it currently has: CLE2002-051LeBron James27.429.5 TEAMDRAFTSPICKPLAYERVORP* OVER EXPECTEDTOTAL VORP OVER EXPECTED The best four-year draft runs, by Value Over Replacement Player, 1985-2016 SEA1986-8917Shawn Kemp11.825.9 GS2009-1235Draymond Green15.824.8 read more

Womens soccer McVicker sees injury as stepping stone

Entering its game against Minnesota, the Ohio State women’s soccer team had high hopes for its season-opening run. Those high hopes were shattered on one serious play during the seventh minute, when redshirt senior goalkeeper Jillian McVicker tried to make a save.McVicker collided with a Minnesota player, and sustained fractured ribs, a punctured lung and a lacerated kidney. She was quickly removed from the field and taken to a Minnesota hospital,where she remained in intensive care for two days before being downgraded to standard care.“Ohio State senior goalkeeper Jillian McVicker is being held at a Minneapolis hospital through the end of the week for further treatment and testing after suffering an injury Sunday at Minnesota,” the athletic department said in a statement from an OSU spokesperson on Friday.McVicker has appeared in over 50 matches for the Buckeyes since joining the team in 2012. McVicker is a former assistant sports director for Lantern TV and also reported for The Lantern during the 2016 Spring Semester.After being released from the hospital on Saturday afternoon, she and her family drove back to Columbus, stopping in Chicago along the way before arriving back at OSU on Monday.Although not the first time the Metuchen, New Jersey, native has sustained an injury, this time, was different from the rest.OSU senior goaltender Jillian McVicker flexes as she recovers in her hospital bed in Minnesota. Credit: Courtesy of Jillian McVicker“I knew that it definitely wasn’t my muscle or anything. I just came out, I knew there was going to be a collision but I just had to get the ball,” McVicker said. “When I came out, I thought I had the wind knocked out of me at first, and then I couldn’t breathe for like a minute.”According to McVicker, her doctor said this type of injury is most common after being involved in a car crash, not with a sport like soccer.The injury has effectively ended the OSU career of McVicker, with a little over a month left in the regular season. Although her time as a Buckeye athlete has been cut short, she has still maintained a positive attitude and high spirits. “All the adversity I have faced, whether it be from injury or typical adversity that every athlete goes through, you just have to keep your head up and keep your mind on the process,” McVicker said. “Take it day-by-day and step-by-step. Which is actually very ironic because that’s exactly what I’m doing in my rehab right now.”As part of the healing process, McVicker can only lift things under 10 pounds, while limiting the amount of overall movement she has throughout the day.On social media, McVicker has received an outpouring of support from family, friends, teammates, players from other teams and, most notably, former United States Women’s National Team midfielder Julie Foudy. McVicker, a four-time OSU scholar-athlete and three-time Academic All-Big Ten selection, has appeared in over 60 matches during her career with the Buckeyes. She is a double major in strategic communications and journalism, and will be graduating this December.After graduation and her injuries have fully healed, McVicker has intentions to continue her playing career outside of OSU.“I definitely want to graduate and want to look at playing overseas in Germany professionally or in America,” McVicker said. “I’m going to probably try to get an agent and figure that out once I graduate. It’s definitely not the last time I’m going to put on my keeper gloves and my jersey again.”Although she will no longer be lacing up her cleats for the Scarlet and Gray, McVicker said she will be embracing her new role of cheering her team on. Without the redshirt senior in the net, the Buckeyes will now be looking to the sideline when when she returns. From here on out, the focus of McVicker is to rally the troops to continue the team’s success. “Although this injury happened to me, my main thing for this season is for my team to be successful,” McVicker said. “Yes, this is horrible and I wouldn’t wish this upon anyone. But at the same time, all of my energy and everything when I get back is to prepare my the team the best I can in my new role.” read more

Valverde Barcelona are fired up for success

first_imgErnesto Valverde believes his team is extra motivated to win the Champions League, as they bid to end their barren run since 2015.The Spanish Champions were dumped out of the competition in the Quarter-final stage by Roma but Valverde thinks they have the right mindset to enjoy European success once again.“We would like to win this competition, and surely this feeling is being felt by other teams too,” he told a pre-match press conference.”Teams like Atletico Madrid, Valencia, Manchester City and Real Madrid all have the same desire, yet I like that there is an extra motivation to win the Champions League this year.”Many pundits have tipped Barca to win the tie PSV, however, Valverde is wary of their attacking talents.David Villa, SpainQuiz: How much do you know about David Villa? Boro Tanchev – September 14, 2019 Time to test your knowledge about Spanish legendary forward David Villa.“They are the Dutch champions and are used to taking the initiative,” he said.”I don’t see them changing that. Most teams want to maintain their style. They will want to attack and we are going to have to defend well against them.”We try to play the same way every game and we will try to do the same again tomorrow.”They have some very talented wingers, especially on the left. They have some very good full-backs as well, and we have to deal with that regardless of who plays for us.”last_img read more

Pellegrini forsees a bright future for Rice

first_imgManuel Pellegrini is confident that youngster Declan Rice will have a bright future after he netted his first goal for West Ham.Rice who turns 20 on Monday, has mustered 50 first team appearances for the Hammers and bagged the winning goal against Arsenal.The youngster extended his deal through to 2024 and revealed that he will make a call on his international future soon after meetings with Gareth Southgate and his Republic of Ireland counterpart Mick McCarthy.“I am sure that Declan will be a top player,” Pellegrini disclosed via the Evening Standard.Mason MountRice tips Mount for greater things Taimoor Khan – September 11, 2019 Declan Rice says that Mason Mount is going to match the exploits of Frank Lampard when he was in his prime during his playing…“He is improving in every game that he plays and is now more used to give us a good build up in front and not so many passes that before he played back.“He is very strong in aerial duels, strong in 1v1 and has a good technique which he demonstrated today in the goal he scored so I am sure that we are seeing a top player soon.“Not only for West Ham but also for the national squad he decides to play.”last_img read more

Cardinals Fall 41 to No 17 Virginia in ACC Opener

first_img“UVA played mistake-free doubles to open up the match,” said UofL head coach Rex Ecarma. “They won four deuce points early and we were fighting from behind. After they won No. 1 singles, the rest of the matches could have gone either way. David won and Sergio was winning. Fabien was up in the second set early. It’s obvious we have a special group of freshmen. UVA added two players in their top four. They are very improved team from last year.” #17 Virginia 4, Louisville 11/20/2019 at Charlottesville, Va.(Boar’s Head Sports Club)Singles1. Carl Soderlund (VA) def. #104 Brandon Lancaster (LOU) 6-1, 6-02. Brandon Nakashima (VA) vs. Christopher Morin-Kougoucheff (LOU) 6-3, 6-5, unfinished3. #38 Gianni Ross (VA) def. Fabien Salle (LOU) 6-2, 7-54. Henrik Wiersholm (VA) def. Federico Gomez (LOU) 6-3, 6-45. Aswin Lizen (VA) vs. Sergio Hernandez Ramirez (LOU) 3-6, 5-5, unfinished6. David Mizrahi (LOU) def. Matthew Lord (VA) 1-6, 6-2, 6-3Doubles1. Carl Soderlund/Matthew Lord (VA) vs. Christopher Morin-Kougoucheff/Fabien Salle (LOU) 5-3, unfinished2. Aswin Lizen/Gianni Ross (VA) def. Brandon Lancaster/Alex Wesbrooks (LOU) 6-33. Brandon Nakashima/Henrik Wiersholm (VA) def. Federico Gomez/Sergio Hernandez Ramirez (LOU) 6-1 The match was decided on court three where No. 38 Gianni Ross defeated freshman Fabien Salle 6-2, 7-5 for the 4-1 final. Virginia (2-0, 1-0 ACC) started the match by taking the doubles points with wins on courts 2 and 3. The Cavalier duo of Brandon Nakashima and Henrik Wiersholm defeated Lousville’s Federico Gomez and Sergio Hernandez Ramirez 6-1 at No. 3 and clinched the point at the two-spot where Aswin Lizen and Gianni Ross topped Brandon Lancaster and Alex Wesbrooks 6-3. Matchup History Preview The University of Louisville men’s tennis team fell 4-1 to No. 17 Virginia in its ACC opener Sunday in Charlottesville, Va.center_img In singles action, Carl Soderlund defeated No. 104 Lancaster at the No. 1 seed to give Virginia a 2-0 lead. Wiersholm defeated Gomez 6-3, 6-4 at the four-spot to make the score 3-0. David Mizrahi put the Cardinals on the scoreboard with a 1-6, 6-2, 6-3 win over Matthew Lord at No. 6. With the victory, the freshman improves his dual match record to a team-best 4-0. Up next, the Cardinals (3-1, 0-1 ACC) will travel to Gainesville, Fla., to face Florida Atlantic in the first round of the ITA Kick-Off Weekend. Next Match: vs. Florida Atlantic 1/26/2019 | 11:00 a.m. Match Notes:Louisville 3-1, 0-1 ACCVirginia 2-0, 1-0 ACC; National ranking #17Order of finish: Doubles (3,2); Singles (1,4,6,3)T-2:00  A-257  Print Friendly Version Full Schedule Roster last_img read more

Agri Marketing dept targets 150 Sufal Bangla stalls by March 2019

first_imgKolkata: The state Agriculture Marketing department has set a target of setting up as many as 150 Sufal Bangla stalls by March 2019, after becoming successful in reaching its goal of opening 101 stalls.It may be mentioned that the department had set a target of setting up 101 Sufal Bangla stalls before Durga Puja. Recently, 21 movable and 5 static Sufal Bangla stalls have been inaugurated, which took the total number of such stalls to 101 across the state. Also Read – Rain batters Kolkata, cripples normal lifeSoon after reaching the target, the state Agriculture Marketing department has carried out an assessment to find out where it is still required to open such stalls. Subsequently, the decision has been taken to introduce another 50 stalls by the end of the 2018-19 financial year.Tapan Dasgupta, the state Agriculture Marketing minister, said: “Our endeavour is to open another 50 stalls by the end of March 2019.”The main idea behind setting up Sufal Bangla stalls is to help common people staying in the urban or semi-urban parts of the state get fresh vegetables at the right price. At the same time, it also encourages setting up of more Farmers Production Organisations (FPOs). Farmers, who are members of the FPOs, directly supply their produce to the Sufal Bangla stalls that get sold at the right price. As a result, farmers no longer need any middlemen to sell their produce. They also get the right price for their produce and do not incur loss. Also Read – Speeding Jaguar crashes into Mercedes car in Kolkata, 2 pedestrians killedThere are both static and movable Sufal Bangla stalls. The static ones are situated mainly in urban and semi-urban areas in the state, while the movable ones keep travelling at different points within a particular area to sell fresh vegetables.Officials of the state Agriculture Marketing department has initiated the task of identifying the places where static ones can be set up and where there is requirement of movable ones.It may be mentioned that price of vegetables and other items, which are available in Sufal Bangla stalls, is available in the website of the Agriculture Marketing department. After checking the price, one can also place order over phone for home delivery, which is available in some of the stalls. The department is also taking steps to introduce the home delivery service in all of its stalls.last_img read more